Hey everyone. I'd like to find out everyone's opinion on why they think the GBP weakens with most POSITIVE announcements.
I believe because of Great Britain (London) being a major financial exporter while France, the United States, and Japan are major financial importers, the Pound Sterling within the Eurozone, U.S., and Japanese markets helps boost those currencies against the GBP when positive announcements are released.
What do you guys/gals think?
2011/02/23
2011/02/22
Great Britain's Public Sector Net Borrowing
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 134.05 Highest 134.85 Current 134.40-45
EUR/JPY: Lowest 112.86 Highest 113.71 Current 113.01-06
USD/JPY: Lowest 82.83 Highest 83.20 Current 83.05-08
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6164 Highest 1.6230 Current 1.6182-85
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3586 Highest 1.3686 Current 1.3606-09
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9456 Highest 0.9495 Current 0.9487-90
AUD/USD: Lowest 1.0040 Highest 1.0086 Current 1.0055-58
AUD/JPY: Lowest 83.31 Highest 83.80 Current 83.50-55
Tonight February 22 at 6:30 PM (UTC+9) Great Britain's National Statistics will announce Public Sector Net Borrowing. The previous announcement was on January 25, 2011. Although the income of public corporations and the government exceeded spending, the GBP significantly weakened against both the USD and the JPY.
GBP/JPY 30 min. chart; 112-point drop
GBP/USD 30 min. chart; 128-point drop
Tonight's announcement is supposed to reveal income exceeding spending by over 15 billion Pounds. If that is the case, the GBP currency pairs may show the same significant drop as the last announcement.
2011/02/18
Great Britain's Retail Sales
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 134.60 Highest 134.87 Current 134.71-76
EUR/JPY: Lowest 113.30 Highest 113.56 Current 113.42-47
USD/JPY: Lowest 83.25 Highest 83.42 Current 83.33-36
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6162 Highest 1.6187 Current 1.6165-68
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3600 Highest 1.3629 Current 1.3608-11
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9488 Highest 0.9509 Current 0.9505-08
AUD/USD: Lowest 1.0107 Highest 1.0129 Current 1.0113-16
AUD/JPY: Lowest 84.20 Highest 84.41 Current 84.25-30
Hello everyone! If you don't know already, all of the world leaders and central bank presidents want to say something today. Maybe their gibberish might move the market tonight!! (lol)
Other than that, at 6:30 PM (UTC+9) tonight Feb. 18th, Great Britain's National Statistics will announce Retail Sales, which is expected to have increased by 1.4% from the previous announcement on January 21, 2011. The January 21st announcement was 0.6% less than expected. The charts below illustrate the effect.
GBP/JPY 30min. chart; 28-point drop
GBP/USD 30 min. chart; 32-point drop
Since the Retail Sales have a high expectation of +1.4% tonight, a disappointing result may weaken the GBP before the market will close.
2011/02/16
U.S. Building Permits & PPI
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 134.97 Highest 135.48 Current 135.07-12
EUR/JPY: Lowest 112.89 Highest 113.57 Current 113.35-40
USD/JPY: Lowest 83.58 Highest 83.88 Current 83.63-66
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6118 Highest 1.6188 Current 1.6158-61
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3475 Highest 1.3573 Current 1.3554-57
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9616 Highest 0.9676 Current 0.9622-25
AUD/USD: Lowest 0.9943 Highest 1.0019 Current 1.0001-04
AUD/JPY: Lowest 83.35 Highest 83.83 Current 83.61-66
Hello everyone. I know....today's post is a little later than usual. Reason being is because today was an eventful day for the market. & why doesn't the GBP stop strengthening?!? What's going on in that nation these days eh?!
Anyway, I wanted to inform everyone about the Building Permits and Producer Price Index (PPI) coming out tonight Feb. 16 at 10:30 PM (UTC+9). Below are the GBP/USD & EUR/USD charts showing the results of the previous announcements on January 13, 2011 (PPI) and January 19, 2011 (Bldg. permits). Even though there was a lot of good news coming out of the Eurozone on January 13, a positive PPI announcement still weakened the USD against the EUR & the GBP (go figure)!!!
GBP/USD 30-min. chart (PPI)
EUR/USD 30-min. chart (PPI)
GBP/USD 30-min. chart (Bldg. permits)
EUR/USD 30-min. chart (Bldg. permits)
For the previous PPI announcement, the GBP/USD rose 64 points within 1 hr. 30 minutes of the announcement and had an 89-point movement overall before retracing. On the EUR/USD, it rose 71 points within the 1st 30 minutes of the announcement & experienced a 168-point movement overall due to some positive announcements from Europe.
As for the previous Building Permits announcement, the GBP/USD and EUR/USD moved in accordance to the outcome. GBP/USD dropped 69 points while the EUR/USD dropped 35 points. The GBP was more affected by the strengthening USD than the EUR was.
Since the USD had negative announcements the night before, look for strong downward trends on the GBP/USD & EUR/USD if tonight's announcemnts are positive by a large margin; especially EUR/USD.
2011/02/15
U.S. Core Retail & Retail Sales
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 133.44 Highest 133.93 Current 133.85-90
EUR/JPY: Lowest 112.25 Highest 112.71 Current 112.65-70
USD/JPY: Lowest 83.18 Highest 83.45 Current 83.38-41
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6021 Highest 1.6065 Current 1.6058-61
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3476 Highest 1.3529 Current 1.3511-13
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9679 Highest 0.9711 Current 0.9690-93
AUD/USD: Lowest 1.0017 Highest 1.0060 Current 1.0045-48
AUD/JPY: Lowest 83.46 Highest 83.81 Current 83.74-79
Good afternoon. For all those looking to take advantage of the USD/JPY, there may be a chance to tonight (Tuesday Feb. 15th) at 10:30 PM when the U.S. Census Bureau will announce Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales. Last month's announcement on January 14th was -0.2% for both the retail announcements which allowed the USD/JPY to drop nearly 50 points within 2 hours after the announcement. The USD/JPY 30-min. chart below illustrates the effect of the 2 announcements.
Tonight's Core Retail Sales are excpected to improve by 0.1% from last month. Retail Sales are expected to decine by the same percentage. If both announcements come out negative, we may see a surprising drop from the current area. The USD/JPY is already high up into its current range.
2011/02/09
Australian Unemployment Rate & Employment Change
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 132.08 Highest 132.88 Current 132.74-79
EUR/JPY: Lowest 112.04 Highest 112.69 Current 112.55-60
USD/JPY: Lowest 82.23 Highest 82.61 Current 82.56-59
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6048 Highest 1.6102 Current 1.6081-84
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3612 Highest 1.3665 Current 1.3636-39
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9619 Highest 0.9657 Current 0.9647-50
AUD/USD: Lowest 1.0099 Highest 1.0154 Current 1.0105-08
AUD/JPY: Lowest 83.32 Highest 83.67 Current 83.41-46
For those Aussie Dollar fans out there here's a treat for you tomorrow morning if you're in the Eastern Hemisphere. The Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate will be announced Thursday February 10 at 9:30 AM (UTC+9). The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects that 18,000 new jobs were created during the previous month. The bureau is also predicting that the Unemployment Rate will remain constant at 5.0%.
The combination of the results of these 2 announcements will determine how quickly the market will move. Below are the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY 30-minute charts illustrating both results that came out on January 13, 2011 at 9:30 AM (UTC+9). Although the Unemployment Rate was announced 0.1% lower than what was forecasted, the Employment Change result was significantly lower than what was forecasted by nearly 23,000 jobs. This negative announcement overshadowed the positive Unemployment Rate announcement.
AUD/USD 54-point drop
AUD/JPY 43-point drop
The AUD/USD has a chance to reach its highest rate ever at around 1.0250 with the help of positive Unemployment Rate & Employment Change announcements. The 1.0250 area presents a compelling selling opportunity.
Great Britain's Trade Balance
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 132.08 Highest 132.43 Current 132.18-23
EUR/JPY: Lowest 112.04 Highest 112.36 Current 112.27-32
USD/JPY: Lowest 82.23 Highest 82.42 Current 82.32-35
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6048 Highest 1.6076 Current 1.6056-59
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3612 Highest 1.3645 Current 1.3636-39
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9625 Highest 0.9657 Current 0.9633-36
AUD/USD: Lowest 1.0132 Highest 1.0154 Current 1.0132-35
AUD/JPY: Lowest 83.35 Highest 83.67 Current 83.38-43
Good morning (evening) everyone. Today's focus is on Great Britain's Trade Balance, which will be announced at 6:30 PM tonight (UTC+9). This month's forecast shows that the value of exports exceeded the value of imports into Great Britain by 100 million Pounds Sterling.
The prevoius Trade Balance announcement on January 12, 2011 showed imports exceeding exports by 500 million Pounds Sterling thus causing the GBP value to drop. Below are the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY 30-minute charts illustrating the effect of that negative Trade Balance.
GBP/USD 91-point drop
GBP/JPY 51-point drop
With the GBP being quite overvalued, any result below what is being forecasted this announcement may cause the GBP to drop significantly.
2011/02/08
2011/02/07
The Euro Comeback
Take a look at the current currency pair rates below:
GBP/JPY: Lowest 132.24 Highest 132.72 Current 132.62-67
EUR/JPY: Lowest 111.54 Highest 112.06 Current 111.92-97
USD/JPY: Lowest 82.14 Highest 82.29 Current 82.21-24
GBP/USD: Lowest 1.6092 Highest 1.6139 Current 1.6131-34
EUR/USD: Lowest 1.3570 Highest 1.3625 Current 1.3612-15
USD/CHF: Lowest 0.9529 Highest 0.9551 Current 0.9536-39
Hello again everyone. I hope everyone had a great weekend. There were no major developments during those 2 days and therefore no weekend gaps to take advantage of. However, there may be buying opportunities that lie within the EUR currency related pairs.
Take a look at this EUR/GBP day chart below:
That chart is showing that the GBP has gained strength on the EUR over the past several days. The blue line is showing area where the EUR/GBP rate has not been below in the past 18 days (0.8420-30). A recent sudden movement downward up until the halfway area of the last upward trend is a sign of retracement in the opposite direction. Take a look at the GBP/USD and the GBP/JPY 1 hr. charts below:
GBP/USD
GBP/JPY
We see that they are very high in their Resistance areas. These trends will eventually reverse. This will allow the EUR to once again begin an uptrend. Take a look at the EUR/JPY and the EUR/USD 1 hr. charts below:
EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
Since the JPY is currently weaker than the GBP,EUR, & the USD, all of these currencies have had a chance to enter an upward trend against the JPY, which is visible in the EUR/JPY chart above. The EUR/USD still has room to climb later on since the USD may also possibly become weaker; especially if the political unrest has not yet been resolved in Egypt. Look for an oppprtunity in the EUR/USD for a buy position but keep a close eye on it.
